The peak of the hottest demand ended, and the pres

2022-07-31
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The end of the peak demand period has greatly increased the pressure on crude oil to fall back from the high level. Although the sudden change of the situation in the Middle East has brought short-term sharp fluctuations to the international crude oil price, many insiders said that with the end of the peak demand period for oil products brought about by the cooler weather, the pressure on crude oil supply has decreased significantly. It will be a high probability event to continue to enter the downward channel after the consolidation of the high oil price

geopolitics led short-term ups and downs

since the end of August, the trend of international crude oil prices has become "elusive", and the factors affecting the trend of international oil prices are more complex, but data and news factors are still the main driving forces

analysts say that the macroeconomic data of Europe and China are improving, which has become the basic support for this round of oil price rebound. The European economy has rebounded since the first quarter, and the stabilization trend has been increasing; China has vigorously implemented economic restructuring since the beginning of the year. 5. In case of oil leakage, the economic growth began to slow down. However, the economic data in July rebounded unexpectedly rapidly, and the economic data in August is expected to continue to improve. All these have an obvious driving effect on crude oil demand

geopolitical factors on the news have a more obvious impact on the short-term crude oil trend. At the end of August, the United States' expectation that key statistical enterprises in 2014 will achieve a profit of 30.4 billion yuan and use force directly led to the operation process of the low-temperature trough of international oil prices: the whole line rose. Especially on August 27 and 28, Brent's October crude oil futures rose by $5.88, and the closing price on August 28 was $116.61/barrel; Us WTI October crude oil futures rose $4.18 to close at $110.10/barrel on the 28th, rising to an 18 month high since February 2012. However, under the influence of the temporary easing of the situation between the United States and Syria, the international crude oil price dropped sharply again. On September 3, the U.S. light crude oil fell by $3.44 per barrel

in fact, some insiders have said that even if there is a war in Syria, it is not as good as the Libyan war and the Iraq war in terms of scale, impact and radiation, and its impact on the international oil market is relatively limited. At present, the supply and demand fundamentals of the oil market are relatively loose, with a surplus of about 400000 barrels/day. The crude oil output of Syria is only 400000 barrels/day, most of which have been shut down, and the output in production is only 50000 barrels/day. Therefore, even if the war leads to the interruption of production, it will not change the current market situation with relatively loose supply

from the supply side, the neglected armed strikes and demonstrations in Libya have a greater impact. Insiders said that the strike has caused a sharp decline in Libya's crude oil export capacity. At present, it is not known when production and export will really resume. Data show that Libya's current crude oil export has decreased by more than 1million barrels per day compared with the full load output capacity. This has a great impact on crude oil supply

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