The past, present and future of the hottest Kyoto

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The classic metaphor of chaos theory in the past, present and future of the Kyoto protocol is "Butterfly Effect", to the effect that a butterfly in Japan (or other places) may cause a storm thousands of miles away by flapping its wings a few times. A caterpillar pupating in Japan has finally grown powerful wings over the years. Its power is far greater than that of the "possible butterfly" - it can form an instrument system with different functions by flapping its wings and compiling different software, which is destined to affect the global climate. This butterfly is commonly known as the Kyoto protocol

I. previous lives of the Kyoto Protocol in most of the lives of the Kyoto Protocol, its form can only be described as a caterpillar - people who touch it feel too thorny, and every step of its progress is slowly crawling. Few people are willing to pay for it

the Kyoto protocol is a descendant of the United Nations Framework Convention on climate change. The convention was "lucky" to be born when our common home - the earth - has shown enough signs of climate change crisis: in the past century, the global average temperature has increased by 0. 5% compared with that before the industrial revolution 6 degrees Celsius, while the average temperature in the most industrialized Europe has increased by 0. 5% 9 ° C. The main reason for this phenomenon has been proved by more and more evidence that it is a large amount of greenhouse gas emissions caused by human activities (mainly industrial and agricultural production). The sharp rise of global temperature (relative to the normal change rhythm of the earth) has affected the lives of most people and the survival of a few people

the current consensus is that if no active emission reduction measures are taken, the global average temperature will continue to increase by 1. 5% between now and 2100 4 to 5 8 ° C. When the melting of glaciers in Antarctica accelerates, when the rising sea level threatens the national security of many island countries in the Pacific and Indian oceans, and when global warming is turning from academic debate into reality, the villagers of the global village have to take precautions - in 1992, the United Nations adopted the United Nations Framework Convention on climate change (UNFCCC) aimed at mitigating the trend of global warming. It not only includes the important guiding principles of equity,, capacity, cost-effectiveness and sustainable development, but also establishes the concept of differential commitments between developed and developing countries. Since the date of contracting, UNFCCC has involved 185 countries around the world and successfully held 8 conferences of the parties with the participation of all parties. However, UNFCCC did not put forward specific and feasible measures to solve the problem of global warming. Only at the first conference of the parties held in Berlin in 1995, a number of developed countries promised to control their carbon dioxide emissions in 1990 by 2000. Therefore, the shrinkage rate here is also higher than that near the gate. However, after review by the parties, it is considered that this commitment is insufficient to achieve the expected goal of UNFCCC to mitigate the trend of global warming. In order to control global greenhouse gas emissions at the expected level, it is also necessary for parties to make more detailed, mandatory and operational commitments. Thus, the protracted negotiations on strengthening the obligations and commitments of developed countries began. After hardships, it was not until the conference of the parties held in Kyoto, Japan, in 1997 that the bill on limiting the emissions of greenhouse gases (including carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), hydrofluorocarbons (HFCS), perfluorocarbons (PFCs), sulfur hexafluoride (SF6), etc.) was initially formed - this is the Kyoto protocol

Greenhouse gas emission has become the most serious environmental problem brought about by the heavy chemical industry. In essence, the negotiation process of the Kyoto protocol is the process of establishing the obligations that countries must undertake in the international climate control system. Therefore, fairness and efficiency must be taken into account, and both history, reality and future changes must be considered. In fact, this is also a question of North-South relations. Although the north and the South share a common goal: to slow down global warming, the two sides are tit for tat on what they need to undertake for this public good. Developing countries safeguard their development rights and interests with "equity"; Developed countries use "efficiency" to safeguard their vested interests. The solution of this problem depends on making an appropriate trade-off between fairness and efficiency. The goal is to find a way to achieve the balance between fairness and efficiency

the Kyoto protocol is recognized as a milestone in international environmental diplomacy because it gives better consideration to fairness and efficiency and allows developed countries to undertake their responsibilities. The Kyoto Protocol stipulates specific and legally binding greenhouse gas emission reduction targets for Annex I countries (developed countries and countries with economies in transition, as shown in Figure 1). It requires Annex I countries to reduce their greenhouse gas emission by an average of 5.2% compared with the 1990 level from 2008 to 2012. Specifically, the reduction targets that developed countries must achieve from 2008 to 2012 are: compared with 1990, the EU cut by 8%, the United States cut by 7%, Japan cut by 6%, Canada cut by 6%, and Eastern European countries cut by 5-8%. New Zealand, Russia and Ukraine could stabilize their emissions at 1990 levels. The protocol also allows Ireland, Australia and Norway to increase their emissions by 10 per cent, 8 per cent and 1 per cent respectively over 1990. In the Kyoto Protocol, three flexible mechanisms, namely the clean development mechanism (CDM), emissions trading (ET) and joint implementation (Ji), are introduced at the same time to allow developed countries to reduce greenhouse gas emissions globally in a cost-effective manner. If a country's emissions are lower than the standards stipulated in the treaty, the remaining amount can be sold to countries that cannot meet the specified obligations to offset the latter's emission reduction obligations. The cost of completing carbon dioxide emission projects in developed countries is five to 20 times higher than that in developing countries. Therefore, developed countries are willing to transfer funds and technologies to developing countries to improve their energy efficiency and sustainable development capacity, so as to fulfill their obligations under the Kyoto protocol. That is, after the implementation of the Kyoto Protocol, the amount of carbon dioxide emission reduction will become a commodity circulating in the world. From this perspective, the Kyoto protocol is not so much an environmental protection protocol as a trade agreement

in the negotiation of the Kyoto Protocol, the majority of developing countries united and achieved great success in opposing developed countries to set up emission reduction obligations for developing countries. However, due to the rapid growth of greenhouse gas emissions in developing countries, it is obviously unrealistic for developing countries to continue to obtain complete exemption according to "history". Moreover, developing countries are not monolithic on whether they should undertake the obligation of emission reduction or restriction. At the fourth conference of the parties to the Convention, Argentina, as the host, called on developing countries to "make voluntary commitments". Like developed countries, there are also some developing countries that are extremely sensitive to climate warming, such as the alliance of small island states

distribution of Annex I countries (red) and Annex II countries (green) in the Kyoto Protocol

II. This life of the Kyoto Protocol

from the perspective of the public welfare of all mankind, the Kyoto Protocol depicts a bright future. However, in 1997, it was still just a caterpillar crawling slowly on the ground and could be trampled to death at any time - two conditions must be met for the entry into force of the Kyoto Protocol: first, 55 countries ratified the protocol through their domestic procedures; Second, among the countries that have ratified the Kyoto Protocol, the CO2 emissions of Annex I Parties in 1990 must account for at least 55% of the total emissions of all Annex I Parties in 1990

at this point, the caterpillar began a long process of pupation - endless negotiations and the United States' commitment made the promotion of this international convention almost "dormant"

the population of the United States accounts for less than 5% of the global population, while the carbon dioxide emissions account for more than 25% of the global emissions. It is the country with the largest global greenhouse gas emissions and per capita greenhouse gas emissions. The United States signed the Kyoto Protocol in 1998. However, in March2001, the Bush administration announced its refusal to ratify the Kyoto Protocol under the pretext that "the relationship between carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gas emissions and global climate change is not clear and the implementation of the agreement will be detrimental to economic growth" and "developing countries should also bear the obligation to reduce and limit greenhouse gas emissions"

some analysts have pointed out that if the United States, which accounts for 1/4 of global greenhouse gas emissions, fulfills its emission reduction obligations in accordance with the requirements of the Kyoto Protocol, the American oil and automobile industry will pay a high price. The Bush administration obstinately said "no", apparently out of the protection of the big plutocrats in the oil and automobile industries who helped him during the election, such as commissioning, acceptance and personnel training. In addition, the United States has been invincible in military affairs in recent years, so "unilateralism" has prevailed in government decision-making and is unwilling to accept the "constraints" of international organizations or agreements

not only that, although the United States claims that it has made great efforts to control its carbon dioxide emissions, its carbon dioxide emissions in 2004 increased by 16% compared with 1990. For a country that is already in the post industrial era, this is not so much a strong control as a strong connivance

because the United States, which plays an important role in the entry into force of the Kyoto Protocol (the CO2 emissions of the United States in 1990 accounted for 36.1% of the total CO2 emissions of Annex I countries), is perfidious, it is still difficult to see the sun four years after the Kyoto Protocol in its pupation state. The contracting parties can only find another way out. The international community has turned its attention to Russia. In 1990, Russia's carbon dioxide emissions accounted for 17.4% of the total emissions of "Annex I countries". If Russia ratifies it, the Kyoto Protocol will meet the conditions for its entry into force. To this end, the Marrakech Agreement, which was highly targeted to Russia, was reached through compromise at the seventh conference of the parties in 2001

however, even though Russia has gained considerable benefits from the Marrakech Agreement, Russia is still hesitant, and there has been very fierce debate in Russia. Opponents believe that ratification of the protocol will hinder the development of Russia's economy and the realization of President Putin's goal of increasing GDP by more than 10% annually in the next 10 years. Supporters pointed out that the ratification of the protocol can not only improve the environmental quality, but also promote Russia to upgrade its industry. More importantly, Russia wants to seek the political support of the EU on the issue of accession to the WTO. After receiving the commitment from the EU, the Russian State Duma (lower house of parliament) and the Federal Council (upper house of parliament) ratified the Kyoto Protocol on October 22 and 27, 2004 respectively, and Russian President Putin signed the Kyoto Protocol on November 5, 2004. According to the treaty, this means that the Kyoto Protocol officially entered into force on February 16, 2005

at this point, the caterpillar became a butterfly through long pupation. Once caterpillars get the Tao and fly into the vast world, they will never be unpopular: the earth will shake when the butterfly moves

III. the future of the Kyoto Protocol

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